tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6219850007522262767.post495028734183979060..comments2015-07-14T12:12:15.979+07:00Comments on scratchindog pisses on a tree: Why history matters (part 2)Scratchindoghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12225906992852409355noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6219850007522262767.post-21203307712405060452015-07-14T12:12:15.979+07:002015-07-14T12:12:15.979+07:00It doesn't matter if originally you pick the r...It doesn't matter if originally you pick the right or the wrong door (in fact better the wrong, but that's just stress) - by changing doors you improve your chances to 2/3. You can't argue with NannaCop! and you can't always make the right choices. Fuck, if i could make make the right choices 2/3 of the time, I'd be pretty happy with myself :)Deepwarrenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12386175274741068875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6219850007522262767.post-91800541758343946852015-07-13T08:43:50.859+07:002015-07-13T08:43:50.859+07:00I knew this would happen! In the morning, my logic...I knew this would happen! In the morning, my logic was fuzzy again and I couldn't see with the drunken clarity of the early hours. This may help. <br /><br />In the original game, your choice gave you a 1/3 chance of survival, and a 2/3 chance of death. Let's say your tormentor allowed you the following choice: Keep your initial choice, or choose BOTH the other doors, surviving if EITHER were correct. Obviously (if you have an honest tormentor), this is a better choice - a 2/3 survival rate against 1/3. It is the same as being able to choose two doors initially instead of one. Yet this what the original game is equivalent to, because the tormentor gives you the choice of BOTH other doors by showing you one is a literal dead-end.<br /><br />Change the rules of the game. You pick a door (any door) - you have a 1/3 chance of surviving. Now, your tormentor shows you one 'death door' - but this time, it can include the door you originally chose. If your initial choice was wrong, the tormentor can show you this, or the other death door. Given these rules, you only have a 50/50 chance of survival (as intuition would suggest). To change choices or not is an even bet. <br /><br />In the original scenario, the tormentor gives you information (subtlety) by telling you which out of two doors is the wrong choice (you don't know squat about your initial choice, but you are certain that if your initial choice was wrong, what the right choice is, i.e. you don't know if your 1/3 bet was good, but if it isn't, you damn well know your 2/3 bet is). In the the latter scenario, the tormentor gives you information by telling you which out of three doors is the wrong choice (if you find out your 1/3 bet was wrong, you have no information about the remaining two choices. If you don't know if your 1/3 bet was good, you have no information between your initial bet and the other choice.)<br /><br />Even now, I still don't quite 'get it'. Perhaps that is because all the morning alcohol has run out. Scratchindoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12225906992852409355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6219850007522262767.post-5626730551532571812015-07-13T06:17:37.140+07:002015-07-13T06:17:37.140+07:00You don't have that luxury. Pick a door, any d...You don't have that luxury. Pick a door, any door. Then after they show you a wrong door, change picks. That is the strategy!Scratchindoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12225906992852409355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6219850007522262767.post-54867573318530329812015-07-13T05:20:33.425+07:002015-07-13T05:20:33.425+07:00So the strategy is to pick the wrong door original...So the strategy is to pick the wrong door originally and change doors.Sharonhttp://goastray.netnoreply@blogger.com